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Coal: industry downturn is the "shuffle" opportunity

2013-07-19
First half of 2013 has turned a page, but the continuous decline in the price of coal has not stopped the decline, the latest one Bohai thermal coal price to close at 592 yuan / ton, the price has dropped back five years ago.


Recently, nearly 10 Yanzhou coal companies have released results notice profits have fallen sharply. Coal stumble endlessly, who earned pours coal companies and power companies dramatic roles are interchangeable.


Coal industry analysts believe that: the second half is not too high expectations of macroeconomic trends, the overall demand for coal will remain weak. Coking coal is expected to increase due to the second half of the infrastructure investment has stabilized.


However, the decrease in coal prices for coal chemical industry is a good investment in terms of time to intervene. Recently China Coal Industry Association is calling on countries to relax the coal chemical industry investment.


Last one Bohai thermal coal average price to close at 592 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week, continued to fall 4 yuan / ton. Yesterday, coal dealer told reporters in late June, China Shenhua, China Coal Energy two giants took the lead substantially lower steam coal 5500 kcal and 5000 kcal varieties offer, a number of coal companies have to follow down the offer.


Currently, the northern port 5500 kcal heat thermal coal listing price is only 580 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of this year has dropped by 50 yuan / ton, while far below last years lowest point of 620 yuan / ton.


Even a substantial price reduction, but can not change the status of sluggish demand for thermal coal. July 15, Qinhuangdao coal network data showed: Bohai four port coal stocks are still up to 20.82 million tons. Downstream plants despite the day the amount of coal consumption has increased, but the average inventory remained at 21 days of usage. Qinhuangdao coal network analyst believes that the lack of demand for support, the Bohai Rim steam coal to be continued to decline.


Recent peak into the semi-annual disclosure, a number of coal companies have issued a warning of falling profits. Yanzhou Coal Mining Company in the first half net profit fell more than 75 percent, is expected to open coal fell 15-45%, Hengyuan Coal, etc Panjiang expected net profit significantly reduced. Cause all point to domestic and international coal prices have fallen significantly.


Reporter yesterday interviewed a number of coal industry analyst found that mainstream views are still not optimistic about the second half of the coal market. View that macroeconomic trends are fundamental factors affecting demand for coal, the second half of the overall demand for coal is still a lack strong support, lignite is also affected by the impact of environmental policies. However, the recent news that the high-speed railway construction restart plan has been submitted, the second half of urban transformation, improving peoples livelihood and other major urban infrastructure investment and construction of infrastructure projects will be gradually liberalized. Analysts believe that this will directly boost cement, steel and other materials consumption, and indirectly conducive coking coal prices stable.


CICC report said the coal industry, the coal market will enter a long round of adjustment, the coal market has not improved short-term possibility. For the coal chemical industry has increased the cost advantage. Now is the transformation of coal enterprises to extend the industrial chain, a better time.


It is reported that recently China Coal Industry Association has issued a "modernization of the coal industry on the promotion of scientific development industry guidance" (discussion paper), drew countries to develop coal to coal-based chemical raw materials into a strategy to gradually relax the major coal chemical project construction, orderly transformation of coal from the fuel to the raw materials. From March this year, nearly 10 large coal chemical investment projects have been given a "flagging."

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